A majority of Russians believe the war in Ukraine will end in 2026, according to a new survey conducted by a state-run polling organization, offering a snapshot of public expectations as the conflict drags on into another year. [1]
What the survey found
The poll, released this week, found that more than half of respondents expect the fighting to conclude sometime next year. A smaller proportion said they believe the war will last longer, while others predicted an earlier resolution or said they were unsure.
State pollsters did not specify the conditions under which respondents expect the war to end, such as a negotiated settlement, ceasefire, or military outcome.
Public expectations after years of conflict
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022 and has since become Europe’s largest military conflict since World War Two. As casualties mount and economic pressures persist, public expectations inside Russia appear to be adjusting to the reality of a prolonged war.
Previous surveys have shown that while many Russians support the government’s stated goals, there is also fatigue and uncertainty about the war’s duration and costs.
Role of state messaging
Experts note that public opinion in Russia is heavily influenced by state media and official narratives, which emphasize resilience, long-term strategy, and eventual success. Such messaging can shape expectations about when and how the war might conclude. [2]
At the same time, expressing opposition to the war remains risky, potentially limiting how freely respondents answer surveys.
Analyst caution
Political analysts and independent researchers caution that results from state-run polls should be interpreted carefully. While they provide insight into officially acceptable sentiment, they may underrepresent skepticism or dissent that is less openly expressed. [2]
Still, the survey offers an indication of how many Russians are psychologically positioning themselves for the conflict to continue into at least another year.
